Leading games industry analysts predict that the Nintendo Switch 2 could well match and succeed its predecessor in first-year sales, though it's far from guaranteed and requires Nintendo to have the stock ready to go.
As a quick refresher, the Nintendo Switch sold around 15 million units globally during its first year in 2017 before reaching around 150 million consoles in the following years. It's interesting, then, to see reports that Nintendo has readied itself to shift 20 million Switch 2 units during the console's first year.
Nintendo likely has high hopes for the console, though other elements we've seen from the likes of the PS5 launch, like scalping, could also contribute to the number of units ready to go. To better understand whether Nintendo can ship that many, though, we've reached out to some veteran analysts to see what the year ahead may bring.
For Japanese games industry consultancy company Kantan Games CEO and analyst Dr. Serkan Toto, shifting 20 million units is "certainly possible" if Nintendo can ship that many in year one. "There is pent-up demand especially from Nintendo hardcore users that have been waiting for such an upgrade for years now," he adds.
Circana games lead Mat Piscatella estimates are more conservative, though largely also see the Nintendo Switch 2 outdoing its predecessor.
"Right now, I have Switch 2 selling around 4.3 million units US in the 2025 calendar year," he says. "Call it ballpark 14-17 million worldwide in calendar 2025. Of course, first calendar year sales are traditionally limited to the number of units that are made and where those units are sent, so we'll have to see how production is ramped up for Switch 2."
In the long term, Piscatella expects Switch 2 to be a "massive success," though he doesn't expect it to reach the heights of Nintendo's first Switch console. "It's tough to forecast for an outlier," he says. "It could happen, but it's not likely."
As both allude to, however, the Switch 2 can certainly be a huge win for Nintendo without reaching the heights of its famous sibling. Given that the Nintendo Switch is up there with some of the best-selling consoles ever made, though, that's hardly a bad thing at all.
When will Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders go live? Here's everything you need to know ahead of April.
