The Nintendo Switch 2 was officially announced this week, but one analyst we spoke to doesn't think it will reach the same lofty heights as its predecessor.
"Switch 2 can (and I expect it to) be a massive success. But I also don't expect it to reach Switch. It's tough to forecast for an outlier. It could happen, but it's not likely," Mat Piscatella, Circana games lead, tells us.
"It's great that it looks to be a bigger, more powerful Switch. Fantastic. Exactly what people wanted and expected," he continues. "But also, it looks to be primarily a bigger, more powerful Switch, which may not be enough to attract an audience outside of buyers of the original Switch."
- Nintendo Switch 2 will need big growth outside the US and Japan to do as well as Switch 1, says veteran analyst: "There have to be some surprises"
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For fans of the Switch, the Switch 2 is great, but Piscatella is right in that there doesn't appear to be much to sway doubters over to it. Unless of course the Joy-Con's apparent mouse mode proves useful for genres like RTS and FPS.
"This announcement did not have much to it," Piscatella continues. "There may be more revelations that no one has thought of and that haven't leaked in some fashion. Looks like we'll have to wait until the Direct for that." It's a sentiment shared by another analyst who believes that to be the reason Nintendo's stock price fell after the reveal trailer.
So, what does Piscatella think of the new console? "In a word, it's fine," he tells us. "On paper the Switch 2 name, and the bigger/more powerful approach is all very smart and a low-risk way to bring it to market. The naming convention makes it clear that this is a successor to the Switch, and anyone looking at it will know what it is."
While Sony has opted for successive numbers for its consoles and Microsoft has gone for unique names, Nintendo has tended to do a mix. The GameBoy, GameBoy Color, GameBoy Advance, then GameBoy Advance SP, or the DS, DSi, and 3DS are all clearly iterations of each other, but this will be the first time the company has just gone for a standard number signifier.
"The bigger ('good problem to have') challenge is that the Switch has been a breakout success," Piscatella explains. "It is an outlier in many ways, including how much it has sold, and for how long it's been selling. Some of the games that were released for it are, years later, still among the best-selling games each and every month."
Nintendo sold over 1 billion games on the original Switch, which is an astronomical figure, and also why backwards compatibility for the Switch 2 was seen as "almost unavoidable" by another analyst.
"Can a successor that does not change the formula significantly really have a shot at repeating or expanding on that level of success," Piscatella asks? "Well, it's possible, but not probable. Growth in countries and regions where Switch did not have as large a presence as in, say, Japan or the US is very important. A strong first party content slate is critical, and additional 3rd party support sure wouldn't hurt (although folks generally buy Nintendo hardware to play Nintendo games). But to match or exceed the success of Switch, there have to be some surprises, and a little luck sure wouldn't hurt as well."
We saw gameplay footage of a new Mario Kart game in the Switch 2 reveal trailer, and we may also be getting some Hollow Knight: Silksong news in the Direct if some developer clues are anything to go by.
"Finding growth from the 2020-2021 video game market peak has been a tough go for everyone," Piscatella explains. "At that time the most people were playing for the most hours while spending the most money. Because of course they were. And Switch received a huge boost over that time period as well."
It's going to be a rough time for all consoles in the future, as growth in the industry has slowed since the COVID boom of 2020, so don't be surprised if the Switch 2 doesn't sell as many units as its predecessor.
For more news, check out our Nintendo Switch 2 spotlight which will keep you updated with all the latest goings on.
