"I could see $1,000": Steam Machine is "a PC with console benefits" and console hardware struggles, analyst says, and "whatever the next Xbox thing is, it's going to be just like it in a lot of ways"

With memory and storage sinks chasing GPU droughts, the global hardware market has gotten so bad that Valve can't even commit to a plan on the Steam Machine's release date or price. When it does eventually arrive, games director Mat Piscatella of analyst firm Circana expects the Steam Machine to offer a preview of full-fat consoles to come, particularly the next-generation Xbox.

Speaking with GamesRadar+, Piscatella describes the Steam Machine and its place in the market as "a PC that can be hooked up to a TV relatively easily. So, a PC with console benefits, I guess I would say.

"But you know, I also think that whatever the next Xbox thing is, it's going to be just like it in a lot of ways," he continues. "A PC first, and then try to offer console conveniences on that PC platform. But I mean, all this stuff's kind of hybridizing, right? The line between PCs and consoles and handhelds and even mobile, it's blurring, not only between the play types and how people use them, but in the games that are available, the content that goes with players from platform to platform. There are differences, but in a lot of ways, they're kind of melding together."

Recent reports claim the next Xbox console will run on a tailored version of Windows and support PC stores like Steam – a natural extension of Xbox's growing role as a third-party agent that happens to offer hardware. On the record, Microsoft gaming boss Phil Spencer has only pointed to the ROG Xbox Ally as a sign of things to come for combining libraries and experiences, just as Piscatella describes.

Ironically, the Steam Machine has become the living room contender facing the worst of the hardware shortages. PS5 and Xbox Series X were already established and had stock built up, and even the still-new Nintendo Switch 2 was able to prepare ample stock for its launch rush before prices truly skyrocketed, though Nintendo is also feeling the squeeze of supply chains. Valve, which has really recommitted to hardware after the success of the Steam Deck washed away the original, failed Steam Machines, is properly struggling to build a castle out of dry sand this year.

"The uncertainty and the chaos is not good for planning," Piscatella says, acknowledging both hardware constraints and US tariff volatility. "If you want to bring out a new Steam Machine this year, trying to come out with an announced price point, given what's going on in all these other areas of the market, is challenging. I imagine that they're going through a lot of planning about component sourcing and making sure the price that they're going to announce is one that they can feel comfortable with given everything else going on.

"So I think the uncertainty in terms of what to expect from not only the component prices, but like you mentioned, the tariffs or even other macroeconomic factors like interest rates, all of that stuff could make planning things very difficult."

On the Steam Machine's price, Piscatella says, "I'm glad I'm not responsible for picking". He could see $700 or $800. "I could see $1,000," he adds. "I could see them going nuts and going under $700 if they want to eat some of those costs." The bigger question, as Valve hinted in its delay, is "where are the components going to be six months from now? How many are they going to make, how can they distribute them?"

"But as a prospect," Piscatella says the Steam Machine as a console-like hybrid remains "super exciting," in part because it could expand the reach or footprint of the audience cultivated in PC gaming and on Steam. This is often the group supporting breakout trends in games, whereas consoles, by virtue of being a more closed platform, tend to be guided less by discoverability and more by tentpole releases (and, of course, the same live service games every year, though no platform is immune to their reign).

"You have this built-in base of really loyal customers that have a huge library, in many cases, just waiting to be played," he says. "And on day one, when they hook up their Steam Machine, they've got all of that library with them, so it's a very exciting prospect. But it's all going to come down to that price point and how many they make. And those are big question marks."

PC gamers and Steam customers are "a really bright spot" as the games industry struggles with pricing and sustainability, analyst says: "We can look at an audience that's excited to try new things."