Nintendo Switch 2 will need big growth outside the US and Japan to do as well as Switch 1, says veteran analyst: "There have to be some surprises"

A leading games industry analyst says that if the Nintendo Switch 2 wants to match or exceed its beloved predecessor, "there have to be some surprises, and a little luck sure wouldn't hurt as well."

Now that the Switch 2 feels more real after an official reveal, some chatter has turned to how well we can expect it to do compared to the original Switch. After all, it's not something the Wii U quite managed to do when following the Wii.

According to a Bloomberg report, Nintendo is ready to shift 20 million units within the Switch 2's first year, which would eclipse the 15 million units that the Switch managed. While analysts agree that the Switch 2 could sell that many units, going on to match Switch's success in the long term is a rather tall order. That's not to say the Switch 2 won't be a success – it's likely it will be – it's more that the Switch is up on the Mount Rushmore of console MVPs like the PS2.

If the Switch 2 was to pull that off, however, what would that look like? As per one analyst who spoke to GamesRadar+, "some surprises" to help it leave a big mark on countries the Switch managed would certainly help.

"Growth in countries and regions where Switch did not have as large a presence as in, say, Japan or the US is very important," Circana analyst Mat Piscatella says. "A strong first-party content slate is critical, and additional 3rd party support sure wouldn't hurt (although folks generally buy Nintendo hardware to play Nintendo games).

"But to match or exceed the success of Switch, there have to be some surprises, and a little luck sure wouldn't hurt as well."

It's all but confirmed that a new Mario Kart game is coming, which is certainly a start. However, we'll have to wait for a special Nintendo Switch 2 Direct in April to find out more. Hopefully, some surprises lie ahead.

When will Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders go live? Here's everything you need to know ahead of April.