Right now, all the cool kids are saying the PS5 release date will be 2020, maybe 2021 if you want to hedge your bets, which raises a lot of questions for almost all the E3 2018 games we saw this year - anything that doesn’t have a release date right now could be a PS5 game, we just just don’t know about it yet.
Still not convinced? Some very solid rumours say Sony is reportedly working with AMD’s architecture for the PlayStation 5’s GPU as we speak, and that a high number of dev kits are already in the wild. While PlayStation boss John Kodera has said the “PS4 is entering the final stage of its life cycle” and that “Sony will spend the next three years preparing for the future." And then there’s Xbox: at E3 Phil Spencer talked about how Microsoft’s "hardware team is deep into developing the next generation of Xbox consoles."
It all suggests the next generation is already happening behind the scenes and realistically almost any game that still has time to make a jump, is likely eying it up - no one wants to release a game on old hardware just as the big new thing comes out. So let’s take a look at the big E3 releases and try to weight up what is definitely heading for PS5 and Xbox Two (or Xbox Scarlett if you want to use the reported codename).
Games that are definitely coming to PS5 and Xbox Scarlett
The Elder Scrolls 6
Release date: TBA
This is absolutely a next-gen game. Bethesda was clear when they announced Elder Scrolls 6 that it was the game after their next game (Starfield, which we’ll get to shortly). It’s currently only in pre-production, which means it’s at least five years out, and that’s based on development cycles for current consoles. If the studio is learning new hardware and architecture then it might be even longer.
Starfield
Release date: TBA
This Bethesda project was actually rumoured for last E3 so it’s existed at the planning stages for a year at least, but that doesn’t mean we’ll be seeing it any time soon. The studio has a habit of prototyping its next project while working on a current one. Fallout 3 work started during Oblivion development, Skyrim during Fallout 3, but neither entered full production until the previous thing shipped. That means that Starfield won’t likely ramp up development until Fallout 76 is out the door and it’s online demands balanced. That will likely be next year, and given that most Bethesda games take 4-5 years Starfield will be a 2022-2023 release at the earliest and well into next-gen territory.
Cyberpunk 2077
Release date: TBA
Two things very clearly mark Cyberpunk 2077 out as a very likely PS5/Xbox 2 game. Firstly CD Projekt Red has purposefully refused to give it a release date, stating simply “when it’s ready.” And, secondly in this interview designer Patrick Mills said, “the game will be coming out on Xbox One, PS4 and PC. At the moment.” The studio has since backtracked on that "at the moment" comment but it’s clear the team are aware, and considering, other platforms.
Beyond Good & Evil 2
Release date: TBA
Ubisoft itself admits this sequel to the 2003 cult original is still in the very early stages of production with director Michel Ancel saying that it’s currently at “day zero of development”. What’s been shown so far is basically a well dressed technical demo to show off the ideas powering the game in a playable way - including some formidable sounding galaxy building procedural stuff. The game might have been announced in 2008 but Ancel said at this year’s E3 that “we now really believe that we’re going to make this game.” Hence the lack of release date and, realistically, the fact that Beyond Good and Evil 2 will be on whatever PlayStation and Xbox do next.
Halo Infinite
Release date: TBA
If nothing else the fact that 343 is building a new engine to make Halo Infinite should scream next generation. No-one drops new tech like that at the end of a generation - that’s building a foundation for the future. What we might call ‘the Halo 6 reveal trailer,’ 343 calls “the Slipstream Engine demo”, describing it as “a great snapshot of where our tech is right now”. Much of Xbox’s E3 was about promises for future platforms rather than Xbox One - like all those Xbox studio acquisitions. Whatever you might be hoping for with the next Halo, very, very few studios invest in a new engine, for a new game, for an old console at the end of its life.
Games that might be coming to PS5 and Xbox Two/Scarlett
Fallout 76
Release date: November 14, 2018
There’s one caveat to Fallout 76 being a next gen game and that’s its potential success. The phrase “for years to come” has been repeatedly mentioned when talking about things like server support or free DLC and content updates. This is a live game, so it’ll live and die by its ability to keep people playing. If updates and expansions keep it going, and most importantly make money (via cosmetic bits and pieces) then a two or three year lifespan isn’t a reach; then you’re heading into next gen territory. Look at GTA 5, a 2013 PS3/Xbox 360 game which is still selling and making money five years later, on a new generation, because its success online.
The Division 2
Release date: March 15, 2019
Just like Fallout 76 The Division 2 jumping to next gen is totally a success based thing. But Ubi has really made a good job of sticking with games like The Division (and things like Rainbow 6: Siege) to rack up huge player counts quietly without anyone noticing. There are 20 million people playing the first game, two years after release and if the sequel can match that, it could easily jump to next-gen platforms.
Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
Release date: Holiday, 2019
There were a few questions as to why Respawn’s Star Wars game appeared at E3 in such an insubstantial way with little more than a name and a release date. There’s a chance here that with a Holiday 2019 release date with could be a dual format release, targeting both this and next generations and EA doesn’t want to reveal Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order via the lower spec version.
Dying Light 2
Release date: TBA
All the current chatter seems to point to Dying Light 2 coming out next year. Lead designer Tymon Smektal said in interview that "we still have a year to optimize [the game]", for starters. The E3 2018 gameplay also showed a very completely realised world full of factions, dialogue options and more, that looked like a finished game (although it’s hard to tell sometimes). However, the first game was supported for years after release and still has a large player base even now, which suggests and overlap into the next generation.
