Thursday 17 August 2006
PlayStation 3 will reach 30 million sales in five years in North America, comfortably beating Microsoft Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii, according to American analysts who predict Sony to emerge once again as the leading console creator by 2011.
It's predicted that 360 will reach 27 million and that Nintendo can expect to shift only 11 million Wiis. This means that even if Microsoft doubles the success of Xbox - which sold 15 million in the US by July 06 - it wouldn't be quite enough to topple Sony's lead.
At the same time, this vaporous batch of guesswork figures predicts that PS3 won't repeat PS2's feat of outselling its predecessor; PS2 reached 30 million sales in the US by May last year - just under four and a half years after release.
These numbers would also spell failure for Nintendo. Given the intense level of interest in Wii from both gamers and mainstream media, flogging just 11 million consoles (equalling the sales for GameCube) would be a huge disappointment, given that Nintendo aims to drag hordes of non-gamers into the fold.
But it's only a couple of months since another group of US-based number crunchers tipped Sony to end up losers in the console race, thanks to PS3's high price tag, so it's probably a little early to start crowning PS3 as the winning next-gen console.