How cheap will you be able to buy PS4 Pro on Black Friday?

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Look at your poor PS4. It's getting old, and when you tried to play Red Dead Redemption 2 yesterday it sounded like it was going to take off like a little, black drone. Maybe it's time to upgrade to a lovely new PS4 Pro? After all, you've either bought a 4K TV or you're seriously considering doing so this Black Friday, and you'll need something to actually give you access to 4K stuff, like gaming and Netflix Ultra. But it's another expense and, quite frankly, the PS4 Pro is a bit expensive right now. But, for a certain budget, you might be able to entertain the idea of picking one up.

Ok, that's probably enough scene-setting for now. You want hard numbers. Well, you can probably expect the PS4 Pro to drop to $320 or maybe even $300, if retailers get especially crazy. In the UK, you can expect £270 - £260, I think. Sounds like I just pulled these numbers out of the air, right? Well, here's the science behind it all...

Last year, during Black Friday 2017, the best US deal for PS4 Pro came via Amazon, which offered a PS4 Pro with Destiny 2 for a delightful $350. That's $50 less than the current MSRP, with a game that was only a couple of months old at the time. Sure, Activision was desperate to shift copies of Destiny 2, but that was a pretty good deal. This year's Black Friday period will be even more competitive for several reasons, so it's likely we'll see a $30-50 drop from last year's prices.

Why? Well, it's all down to the competition and the lifecycle of the current consoles. Sony is banking on its players simply upgrading to PS4 Pro, and with the increasing number of people buying 4K TVs, it wants to make sure that players stick with PlayStation instead of moving over to Xbox, and buying an Xbox One X. Crucially, Microsoft will be discounting the Xbox One X during Black Friday - it has been available for about 15 months, it's still comparatively expensive, and Microsoft wants a slice of your 4K money. Sony will react to Microsoft and aggressively price the PS4 Pro, and retailers will be keen to bundle the console with any of the best games of 2018 (and it has been a bumper year, so you should be able to find a cheap bundle with any game of your choice). One thing to note, however, is that Target recently previewed its Black Friday deals and there was no sign of a PS4 Pro bundle on there. It's very possible the retailer is saving some surprises for the day but it could also mean that you won't find Pro deals at Target. Which isn't ideal.

In the UK the cheapest deal was, technically, Currys PC World offering a Pro for £283 with GT Sport. Again GT Sport is an easy game to bundle because it's more about building a player base for a live service model (where you play it for years and it constantly changes and updates), but a Pro for under £300 is a damn good price. During Amazon Prime Day luckily British buyers were treated to £50 off the cost of a new PS4 Pro, on its own, via Amazon and that sold VERY well. Given the fact that Black Friday is so huge, and that we can expect exponentially bigger drops in price each year, I think we'll see a £260 PS4 Pro. Maybe with a caveat - like you'll actually pay £270 for the console and a copy of a game selling at £20 in the sale - like Far Cry 5 - but it will probably happen.

Another telltale sign that we'll see PS4 Pro discounts is that, right now, online retailers have frozen the price of the console itself. And they're only selling the Red Dead 2 bundle at normal price (because, why wouldn't you? That game was designed to sell 4K consoles!). The big retailers always tend to freeze prices of the items they know will be on sale during Black Friday (or inflate them slightly), to ensure their discounts are as big as possible on the day, so if you're struggling to find a decent deal on a PS4 Pro... well, you know why.

The Red Dead Redemption 2 bundle is interesting, though, and could be a bit of a wildcard in this year's sales. It has been selling like hotcakes since going on sale, at a relatively good price, so this may actually lower demand for the PS4 Pro during Black Friday. Plus, retailers might actually be confident that if they knock $20 off the price of the Red Dead bundle that they'll actually sell all their stock anyway. So, ironically, the release of one of PS4's biggest and best games may actually make the price of upgrading your machine a little more expensive.