Movers and Shakers
The NFL is the cruelest league. More than any other professional sport, player fortunes rise and fall with the whim of an unlucky break and an accountants pen. Todays top-flight running back is tomorrows scrap heap castoff, where slightly-reduced effectiveness renders you useless to a salary-cap-savvy executive.
Lets start with whos moving up.
Matt Flynn
Player: Matt Flynn
Team: Seattle Seahawks
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 75
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 86
Why we think it will change: His body of work is small, but includes a record-setting performance with the Packers late last year that helped him land a big contract and big expectations with the Seahawks. Seattle fans are starving for some offense, having seen mostly desultory performances from the most important position in sports for several years now. Head Coach Pete Carroll will likely set Flynn loose, and the potential for a powerful run-pass combination (thanks to the mercurial Marshawn Lynch) could spell big numbers for the Hawks. We have a feeling Madden NFL 13 is going to be generous toward Mr. Flynn and Seahawks fans, cranking his OVR up to 86.
Jason Pierre-Paul
Player: Jason Pierre-Paul
Team: New York Giants
Position: DL
Madden 12 Player Rating: 75
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 91
Why we think it will change: The Giants one-man tornado tosses linemen around like child playthings, single-handedly blowing up plays and generally causing havoc. Easily the steal of the 2010 draft, his contributions were significant in New Yorks run to a Super Bowl championship. By the end of last season, offensive coordinators were designing plays to stay as far away from him as possible. Now, the Madden 13 ratings will reflect that as he jumps from the mid-70s to the low 90s, making the virtual New York Football Giants that much more imposing to opponents everywhere.
Fred Jackson
Player: Fred Jackson
Team: Buffalo Bills
Position: RB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 80
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 90
Why we think it will change: The Bills powder keg had a magnificent 2011 season until a gruesome fractured leg ended it prematurely ten weeks into the campaign. Until that unfortunate moment, Jackson had been one of the best running backs in the league, sporting six 100-yard games and a gaudy 5.5 yards-per-carry average. Injuries happen to everyone in the NFL, and we think Madden 13s ratings gurus will shine brightly on Jackson now that hes healthy again and the proud owner of a shiny new 2-year contract.
Andy Dalton
Player: Andy Dalton
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 71
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 83
Why we think it will change: Big Red came from nowhere as a rookie to lead the usually-moribund Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs. While he faded near the end of the year and had a rough debut in the postseason a lot of people feel hes got what it takes to be successful calling signals in the NFL. Were pretty sure Madden 13 will feel the same way, bumping him up significantly from his original rating in the low 70s. This season is a big test though has the league figured him out, or will he prove last year was just a taste of future victories?
Victor Cruz
Player: Victor Cruz
Team: New York Giants
Position: WR
Madden 12 Player Rating: 61
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 95
Why we think it will change: This Salsa-dancing Super Bowl Champion was a nobody when Madden 12 shipped last August, but after posting over 1,500 yards receiving and winning the Super Bowl, he will be the highest rated number two wide receiver on any team. One of the very first promotional videos that was released for Madden 13 highlighted Victor Cruz's Salsa dance touchdown celebration and, from what his ratings will likely be (95+ speed, acceleration and catching) in Madden this year, we'll be seeing that dance a lot.
Cam Newton
Player: Cam Newton
Team: Carolina Panthers
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 77
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 92
Why we think it will change: Cam Newton's robust athleticism made the Carolina Panthers use their number one draft pick on a quarterback for the second year in a row, and it paid off big. Newton's speed and throwing power will make him one of the most exciting QBs to play with in Madden 13 - and it will also make people want to quit out of an online match before it has even started. After breaking the record for most passing yards by a rookie in a single season, Newton will be breaking down defenses all year long in Madden 13.
Matt Moore
And that's all for the rising stars. Now, we move on to our predicted drops...
Josh Freeman
Player: Josh Freeman
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 87
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 78
Why we think it will change: Few player ratings will fall more precipitously than those of Tampas quixotically struggling signal-caller this year. Just when he looked to be embarking upon greatness, everything fell apart, as Freemans erratic play led to a boatload of losses and an entire new coaching staff. This is an all-or-nothing season for the massive QB, who shouldve been more like Cam Newton but wound up like Ryan Leaf. His ratings will reflect that disappointment.
Chad Ochocinco
Player: Chad Ochocinco
Team: Miami Dolphins
Position: WR
Madden 12 Player Rating: 85
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 79
Why we think it will change: After the debacle that was Ochocinos tenure with the New England Patriots, many people thought the flamboyant former All-Pro was finished. The Dolphins clearly think differently although many people (including us) disagree. With greatly diminished speed and a penchant for running halfhearted routes, Ochocinco will need something close to a miracle to turn it around in South Florida, and his Madden NFL 13 ratings will reflect that, dipping from a generous 85 to something in the upper 70s.
Peyton Hillis
Player: Peyton Hillis
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Position: RB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 91
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 82
Why we think it will change: From Madden cover athlete to afterthought, to say Hillis struggled last year would be an understatement. Alienating fans and teammates with strange injuries after being mostly ineffective, Hillis was run out of Cleveland in a fall from grace faster than any athlete in recent memory. He gets one more shot to re-establish the punishing, bruising style that made him (briefly) popular, but hell start off rated much lower than anyone would have dreamed just 12 months ago.
Chris Johnson
Player: Chris Johnson
Team: Tennessee Titans
Position: HB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 96
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 87
Why we think it will change: Last season, Chris Johnson went from CJ2K to CJ just OK. Johnson's lack of performance may have had something to do with his long holdout in the offseason, or being injured, but after rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2009, barely topping 1,000 yards two years later isn't going to help you maintain an elite overall rating in Madden. Even though former Titans coach Jeff Fisher recently stated that this season we will see a return of CJ2K, don't expect Madden Ratings Czar Donny Moore to start Johnson off much higher than the upper 80s. He will be more of a wait and C (JOK) this season.
Philip Rivers
Player: Philip Rivers
Team: San Diego Chargers
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 96
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 90
Why we think it will change: Philip Rivers threw for just as many yards as Aaron Rodgers last season (over 4,600 yards) but he also threw as many interceptions as Rex Grossman (20). Rivers wasn't clicking like he was supposed to, and fumbling snaps on QB Kneels and throwing picks late in games doesn't exactly earn you a spot at the top of the QB pile. It also won't merit giving Rivers a rating as low as Grossman, but Rivers will have a lot to prove this season if he wants to restore his high 90s overall rating. Look for a significant drop in his accuracy and awareness.
Antonio Gates
And amidst the risers and sinkers, there are the high-profile moves that have heads turning and sports columnists losing sleep. Here's a look at a few...
Peyton Manning
Player: Peyton Manning
Team: Denver Broncos
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 98
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 93
Why we think it will change: Most Colts fans assumed wed have a Zombie Apocalypse before their beloved Manning would change teams, but the NFL proves every year it plays no favorites. With no playing time for over a year, multiple neck surgeries, and a new team and offense in Denver, no one has any idea what to expect from this first-ballot Hall of Famer. One things for sure that 99 Injury rating is coming down, and while EA will be respectful of Mannings body of work, we have to believe his overall will dip a few notches yet remain (for now) in the 90s.
Ray Lewis
Player: Ray Lewis
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Position: LB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 95
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 89
Why we think it will change: Lewis has been knocking people silly and dancing like a crazy man in pre-game warmups for so long that many Ravens fans assume hell play forever. His play took a noticeable dip last year, though, and hes nearing the end of his Hall of Fame line. We cant imagine that his overall rating will be near last seasons 95, although it may not fall to where it probably should simply because Donny More doesnt want to take the chance Lewis will beat him up. Even so, Ray should be in the high 80s when Madden 13 kicks off.
Ed Reed
Player: Ed Reed
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Position: FS
Madden 12 Player Rating: 98
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 93
Why we think it will change: Another longtime player in Ravens purple and sure-fire Hall of Famer thats getting a little ling in the tooth, Reed will face an uphill climb to maintain his lofty status. A few serious injuries have chipped away at his effectiveness recently, so itll be hard to imagine matching his 98 overall from last season. When healthy, hes still scary and always a threat to turn a pick six, but its getting harder and harder for Reed to stay on the field.
Matt Forte
Player: Matt Forte
Team: Chicago Bears
Position: RB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 89
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 91
Why we think it will change: Many argued Fortes ratings were too low last year, and despite a devastating injury we have a feeling hell get a 2-3 point bump. The newly-signed Forte isnt worrying about a contract anymore, and if he has a terrific training camp then EA will likely crank up some of his individual attributes too although its pretty clear the 95 injury rating will take a hit. You never know which directions athletes that finally get paid the big bucks will go; Bears fans hope its up up up.
Tim Tebow
Player: Tim Tebow
Team: New York Jets
Position: QB / Special Teams
Madden 12 Player Rating: 77
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 84
Why we think it will change: A better question: how will Tim Tebows ratings change? Unfortunately for Skip Bayless, there is no he just wins rating. Even with one of the more suspect, ahem, spirals in professional football, there is no denying that Tebow is an exceptional athlete. He led the Broncos to an AFC West title and an amazing overtime playoff win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. For Madden 13, Tebow will now be on the Jets as Mark Sanchezs backup, but the more scintillating development is that Tebow will also be a feature on New Yorks special teams squad. It will be interesting to look at his final individual ratings, but we imagine Tebows overall rating may look more like a fullbacks than a quarterbacks.
Tony Romo
Player: Tony Romo
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Position: QB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 88
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 94
Why we think it will change: As the leader of the most talented team in football, Tony Romo can be a polarizing figure. Theres no denying that he is at least a good quarterback, but is he an elite quarterback? When you look at the numbers, Romo looks like he is right on the cusp of achieving the elite status when it comes to passing yards (over 4,000 last year) and touchdowns (31). However, when it comes to winning big games and making big plays, Romo falls short. Nevertheless, its hard to deny Romos talent and we should see a significant increase in Romos accuracy, awareness and throw on run ratings for Madden 13. But we wouldnt be surprised to see that his Is Clutch attribute is a solid HELL NO.
Darrelle Revis
Player: Darrelle Revis
Team: New York Jets
Position: CB
Madden 12 Player Rating: 99
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 99
Why we think it will stay the same: When you hear NFL broadcasters use the phrase shut down corner, they are more often than not referring to Darrelle Revis. When you look at Revis impressive stats from last season (4 interceptions, 52 tackles and a 100 yard pick six against Miami) they dont really tell the full story. You have to look at his opponents receivers stats. Outside of one game where he was covering 64 Brandon Marshall, not a single wide receiver that Revis matched up with broke 85 yards. Quarterbacks tend not to throw towards Revis Island and there is no sign of that changing any time soon. It would be shocking to see Revis drop from on top of his 99 overall status in Madden 13.
Troy Polomalu
Player: Troy Polamalu
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Position: SS
Madden 12 Player Rating: 99
Our Predicted Madden 13 Player Rating: 95
Why we think it will change: Fan favorite Troy Polamalu has been Head & Shoulders above this generation of safeties for several years now. Polamalu is showing slightly noticeable signs of slowing down, and his league competition in the secondary is getting fiercer every season. The 2011 season saw Polamalu stack up in the upper echelon of strong safeties, but even young players like Seattles Kam Chancellor had more tackles and picks than Polamalu. It would be odd to give Polamalu a 99 overall when a good number of safeties had statistically better seasons than he did last year, but it wouldnt make a lot of sense to drop him down a great deal. Even at the age of 31, he is still performing at a high level, but this should be the year where we see him slide a little in the ratings.
