Switch will outsell PS5 and Xbox Series X/S in 2021, analysts predict

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A selection of reliable industry analysts expects the Nintendo Switch to sell more consoles than both the PS5, Xbox Series X, and Xbox Series S this year.

GamesIndustry rounded up 2020 and 2021 predictions from several analysts in a new forecast. While their opinions are speculative, they're well-educated guesses that often gel with recent comments from Nintendo executives. It's also worth noting that the Switch outsold both next-gen consoles in their launch month of November, so the overarching prediction here is far from unprecedented. 

Mat Piscatella of analyst firm NPD reckons that, "despite the launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, it will be the Nintendo Switch that ends up selling the most units of console hardware in 2021. I will go a step further and suggest this will be driven by content and promotional efforts rather than the release of a new iterative model."

Likewise, Serkan Toto of Kantan Games argues that "everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment. The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh, and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020."

Finally, Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis added that the Switch family (including the Switch Lite) will be the best-selling consoles for the year. Unlike Piscatella, he believes that "it makes more commercial sense to release an updated version" of the console this year, and that he expects to see one in 2021.

There are two recurring themes to these predictions: firstly, the Switch isn't going anywhere, and secondly, a Switch Pro is still something that a not-insignificant portion of people expect to see from Nintendo. Just under three weeks ago, Nintendo of America president Doug Bowser spoke to the latter, pouring cold water on the latest batch of Switch Pro production rumors. Rather than a new or updated console, Bowser says Nintendo is still looking to prioritize the base Switch and extend its life cycle. He also stressed that the Switch is just now hitting its halfway point, which is a message we've heard from other Nintendo executives throughout the past year. 

There are still plenty of big-hitter upcoming Switch games in the works, including the Breath of the Wild sequel and Metroid Prime 4.

Austin Wood

Austin freelanced for the likes of PC Gamer, Eurogamer, IGN, Sports Illustrated, and more while finishing his journalism degree, and he's been with GamesRadar+ since 2019. They've yet to realize that his position as a staff writer is just a cover up for his career-spanning Destiny column, and he's kept the ruse going with a focus on news and the occasional feature.