Analyst says GTA 6's importance to the console market "cannot be overstated" as Sony and Microsoft try to get old-gen players to upgrade

GTA 6 could be the game that finally gets PS4 and Xbox One holdouts to switch over to current-gen consoles, predicts a prominent industry analyst.

In a tweet, Circana industry advisor Mat Piscatella argues "the importance of Grand Theft Auto VI to the console market cannot be overstated," referencing a recent chart from Sony showing that, even 3.5 years after the PS5's launch, a roughly equal share of 97 million active users are still on PS4. Sony is naturally keen on getting its user base into its latest machine, and this chart specifically points to data showing PS5 users are logging significantly more gameplay hours than PS4 users (2.4b per month compared to PS4's 1.4b).

Piscatella reckons folks have been slow to ditch their old-gen consoles because of what he refers to as "black hole games." Presumably, he's suggesting cross-generation evergreen games with unfathomably large player bases are keeping more casual gamers from feeling incentivized to invest in newer hardware. Put simply, Piscatella says it's "far too easy for folks to stay on the older boxes with Fortnite/Minecraft/Roblox/COD... and GTAV."

Piscatella is right to say GTA 6 has the potential to change that. It being a current-gen exclusive sequel to the best-selling video game of all time - one with no announced PC version - could be a key driver in getting the masses in PlayStation and Xbox's respective player bases to move on to PS5 and Xbox Series X.

While Piscatella specifically refers to Sony data, it's safe to assume one of Xbox's chief hardware priorities is to get more of its user base to convert to Xbox Series X/S. GTA 6 could very well be the catalyst for that generational shift to happen and for Xbox and PlayStation to move on from their respective last-gen consoles for good.

Even if we do end up getting a PS4 Pro and a potential Xbox mid-cycle refresh this year, Piscatella doesn't think it'll move the needle much, arguing, "the overwhelming majority of people that will preorder a PS5 Pro if/when it is announced will be the same people that preordered the PS5 when it was announced. Iterative consoles are always for the early adopter and deep enthusiast market."

While a PS5 Pro has been heavily rumored to be launching in the relative near future, we haven't heard as much about an Xbox equivalent, although a hardware refresh at some point seems inevitable with both platforms.

GTA 6 is officially launching on PS5 and Xbox Series X in Fall 2025, dispelling an early report that claimed it could've been delayed.

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