GTA 6 could be set to release in the 2024 financial year, according to analysis of publisher Take-Two's recent acquisition of Zynga.
Earlier this week, Take-Two's $12.7 billion purchase of the mobile development company became the biggest video game acquisition in history. In a press release announcing the deal, Take-Two said that the combined company is "expected to deliver" an annual growth rate of 14% over the next three years, to the end of the 2024 financial year.
As noted by analysis from New York firm Jefferies (via Axios), "there are only a handful of titles that can [...] provide management with the confidence to put out such a strong guidance," leading the firm to "believe there is at least one Rockstar IP set to be released by FY24," which starts in April 2023, and end in March 2024.
According to Cowen analyst Doug Creutz, 14% growth in that time would require around $9 billion in spending on Take-Two in that time, which they claim relates to "a likely GTA 6 launch in FY24."
That lines up pretty closely with reports from last year that stated that GTA 6 might not launch until 2025, but that 2023 was a possible target for Rockstar. GTA 5 originally launched in September 2013, so a launch relatively late in the calendar year could be a pattern that Rockstar is aiming to follow.
It's worth noting that this is far from confirmation of a release window, and that until we hear from Rockstar or Take-Two, even informed financial analysis can't be expected to predict the many issues that can impact development schedules. Just a few months ago, one report suggested that GTA 6 development was "chaotic," which could mean that internal and even external schedules shift around significantly as the game gets closer to release.
