Analysts predict GTA 6 will obviously be a massive success at launch, but they don't necessarily see it becoming as much of a long-term juggernaut as GTA 5 has been.
Rockstar Games finally revealed details about the upcoming open-world game yesterday, with the GTA 6 price sitting at $80. Speaking to GamesRadar+ David Cole, founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence, says that despite the fears some had that the game would be $100, this price "was not a surprise." Serkan Toto, founder and CEO of Kantan Games, tells us it was "expected" that the game wouldn't launch at the $70 standard, but thinks "expecting $100 was not crazy in my book. However, that sum would probably be a tad too much even for GTA 6."
As Cole says, "the biggest surprise was that the physical version does not have a disc," and despite some pushback on this, it probably won't end up effecting sales all that much.
We asked Cole how many copies he expects GTA 6 to sell now that it has an official price point. "Our estimate for day one sales, mostly pre-orders, is 25 million," he tells us. GTA 5 previously sold 11 million copies in its first day when it launched back in 2013, so more than double of that would certainly be huge, especially with 13 years of hype behind it. Meanwhile, Toto, reckons it could be even higher: "30 million units should be possible."
However, GTA 5 went on to sell almost 230 million copies during the 13 year wait between it and GTA 6, but this isn't a feat that Cole expects is guaranteed to be surpassed by the latest entry. "It could be hard for GTA 6 to surpass the incredible longevity and massive sales of 5," Cole explains. "We think GTA 6 will be stronger upfront but whether it can have the remarkable lifespan of its predecessor remains an open question."
"The biggest issue GTA 6 has is the limited installed base of the platforms it is launching for," Cole explains, adding: "Obviously, GTA 5 gained the bulk of its sales over time as it launched for new platforms and PC. We expect GTA 6 to follow a similar trajectory."
Analyst Joost van Dreunen,once the CEO of games market research firm SuperData Research who now teaches at the NYU Stern School of Business, also expects "GTA 6's long-term sales to underperform compared to its predecessor." He explains: "When GTA 5 launched in 2013, the industry was about to enter a historic growth spurt, and over the decade that followed, global consumer spending tripled from $76 billion to $236 billion. I don't expect to see that repeat in the years ahead."
Even so, Van Dreunen is also optimistic about GTA 6's sales. "I predict GTA 6 will at least match its predecessor's launch and sell-in to at least 30 percent of the overall console audience, totaling 38 million copies and just over $3 billion in sales within its first 12 months," he tells us. And, while he thinks its overall sales figures might end up lower than GTA 5, "per player spending will be higher" as he expects Rockstar to "cater to a smaller player base that it will nonetheless monetize quite effectively."
