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Whether you consider it a living room PC or a "console that refuses to admit it's a console," there's no doubt that Valve's new Steam Machine is going to be a big deal when it launches early next year, but just how highly it sells will probably depend on its price – something Valve hasn't yet announced. We asked a number of games industry analysts how much they expect the hardware to cost, and while estimations vary, it sounds like "it will not be cheap."
An analyst with a slightly more favorable prediction for our bank balances is Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern School of Business professor and the former CEO of SuperData Research, a games market research firm, who reckons that "the Steam Machine is priced to sit right between a console and a PC." As far as the actual price tag goes, he expects that it could "cost around the mid-five hundreds, rising to the high-seven hundreds for more storage."
While this price would put it "shoulder-to-shoulder with PS5 and Xbox Series X on sticker price," van Dreunen notes that "the value proposition is different because you're effectively buying a living-room PC built around Steam, not a closed console. Valve is using console-like pricing to Trojan-horse SteamOS into the mainstream, which is the real long game."
Coming in with a slightly higher estimation is Dr. Serkan Toto, the CEO of Japan games industry consultancy Kantan Games. "It will not be cheap," he says of the Steam Machine. "My guess for the Steam Machine's price is US$700-800, and only because they can justify it by being the platform provider at the same time. The price will be higher if it comes bundled with the controller – which I doubt."
Meanwhile, David Cole, the CEO and founder of research firm DFC Intelligence, thinks the cost could go higher still, but says that speculating on the pricing is "difficult," citing costs for storage and memory, which are "currently high and fluctuating." He notes: "There is also the question of how much Valve may be willing to subsidize the system to build a user base. Right now, we are looking at an estimate of $700-800 for the low-end model. Up to $1,000 for high-end models. However, we believe Valve is waiting to assess market conditions before announcing a final price."
Of course, it's worth keeping in mind that this is all speculation for the time being, and Cole isn't the only one who expects that Valve itself might not be too sure about the pricing yet. Circana's senior director and video game industry thought leader, Mat Piscatella, notes: "Given the wild swings we're seeing in the pricing of component parts at the moment, I'm not sure even Valve knows where this will end up by the time people can preorder it." While he suggests that we could see "pricing anywhere between $499 and $799 depending on what happens with components, tariffs, and everything else," he admits he ultimately has "no clue!"
Piscatella continues: "Plus, it's Valve, which can basically do whatever it wants regardless of costs. Darts, random number generators, somebody studying video game sales for 20 years, all will likely end up with the same level of accuracy on this one, given the uncertainties around things like tariffs and other macro conditions at the moment."
For now, then, we'll just have to wait and see. The Steam Machine is set to release at some point early next year.
