It's that time of year again. After months of campaigning and voting amid serious fan debates, the 2025 Oscars nominations are in – and now it's time to predict who will take home an Academy Award in March.
But unlike previous years, there doesn't appear to be an Oppenheimer-style frontrunner in most categories, nor a gripping back-and-forth battle between actors – as was the case between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone last year. That means, then, that things are looking decidedly different and (on paper, at least) far more open at this year's Oscars.
Oscars 2025 predictions
Best Picture
The nominees:
- Anora
- The Brutalist **
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I'm Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
For the most part, Best Picture usually feels sewn up before we even get to the Oscars night itself. This year, that's not the case – and it could lead to the most open race in years.
An early indicator of success is whether a nominee has picked up a Golden Globe for Drama, Musical/Comedy, or Non-English Language film (which Parasite was the recipient of back in 2020). Historically, just under two-thirds of those winners go on to nab the top prize. This year, that means The Brutalist and Emilia Perez are favorites in terms of industry trends.
But trends are there to be bucked, and there's been buzz for almost 12 months from various trades and in prominent circles that Anora will be the one to beat on the night. Conclave also received a round of intense speculation late last year that it could be anointed Best Picture – the tension is papal-ble, clearly.
I'm Still Here, A Complete Unknown, and Nickel Boys feel like slight outsiders this year thanks to the now-standard increased field of 10 films – though that's no indication of their overall quality. Wicked, The Substance, and Dune: Part Two are each intriguing genre picks, though the Academy doesn't usually look kindly on musicals, horrors, or sci-fi blockbusters.
Our best guess? The Brutalist feels tailor-made for a Best Picture win: a towering, dense 210-minute epic following architect László Toth at the onset of a new American age, it has the shape and subject of an Academy Award-winning film. It's strengthened too by incredibly strong performances throughout (with most receiving Oscar nods themselves), one that could lead to a surge of momentum as the votes are tallied.
However, there is a spanner in the works: controversy surrounding the use of AI in The Brutalist – largely overblown as it may be, with technology being used for its actors to hit certain Hungarian accent inflections – may lead to a win for Emilia Perez. If so, it could prove to go against the court of public opinion, with some on social media lampooning the musical with a wave of out-of-context clips and scathing Letterboxd reviews.
Best Director
The nominees:
- Anora – Sean Baker
- The Brutalist – Brady Corbet **
- A Complete Unknown – James Mangold
- Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
- The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
While early talk around the category focused on who didn't make the cut – namely, Dune director Denis Villeneuve – there's much to celebrate in this year's Best Director category.
For the first time since 1997, all five filmmakers are first-time nominees for Best Director. You would think that would lead to a compelling race but, unfortunately, this could be one of the most predictable awards of the night.
That's all due to Brady Corbet and his win at the Golden Globes. While those January awards are never a surefire indicator of success at the Oscars, its track record for Best Director is notable. Only three of the past 11 winners haven't then gone on to take home the Academy Award. Bookmakers are all also pretty unanimous in their verdict: this is Cobert's award to lose – especially given the narrative that he wrangled not only some extremely knotty material, but also helped draw out career-best (or close to it) performances from the likes of Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce.
As much as we'd like Sean Baker's work to be nominated, Anora's slightly frustrating ending may not go down too well with the Academy. Meanwhile The Substance's larger-than-life, gross-out affair may be a little too much for voters to stomach – despite its razor-sharp wit and commentary all coming from the keen eye of Coralie Fargeat. We also expect Jacques Audiard and James Mangold to miss out, though a surprise Audriard win could spell the start of a significant sweep for Emilia Perez on the night. One to watch, for sure.
Best Actor
The nominees:
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown **
- Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
- Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Just a few months ago, Adrien Brody appeared to have this all wrapped up for his role as architect László Tóth. Since then, Ralph Fiennes' turn as the conflicted Cardinal Lawrence felt disruptive enough to turn heads. But it's not the Vatican's finest who has filled the power vacuum. Instead, Timothée Chalamet's portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown has been hitting the right notes for the Academy and for Hollywood.
Biopics – as seen with Bohemian Rhapsody and last year's Oppenheimer – are often perfect fits for the Academy as their subjects often allow an actor to showcase as wide a range of their talents as possible. Couple that with Chalamet's media blitz, including a memorable SNL appearance (which, cynically, could be seen as a last plea to voters) and the tide could turn in his favor.
This could be one of the closer contests come the ceremony itself. Right now, we're going to stick our neck out and predict a slightly shocking win for Timothée Chalamet.
Best Actress
The nominees:
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
- Mikey Madison – Anora
- Demi Moore – The Substance **
- Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Pérez
- Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
This year's Best Actress category is low-key one of the closest, most engaging races we've seen in years. The Emma Stone/Lily Gladstone tussle in 2024 was between two exceptional performances but here, it's likely going to come down to a three-way battle between Demi Moore, Mikey Madison, and Fernanda Torres.
Right now, it's too close to call. Demi Moore is maybe the slight frontrunner thanks to her surprise Golden Globes win, but there's always the lingering doubt as to whether the Academy voters really rate horrors and horror-adjacent genre films.
Those casting their votes this year – as in recent years – may be more keen to make more history with their choices, which perhaps hints at the secretive ballot perhaps skewing slightly away from the mainstream with their tastes. If so, The Substance could break the mold and pave the way for more 'out there' performances, such as Moore's Elizabeth Sparkle and her desperate attempts to stay relevant in an industry that has passed her by.
The Golden Globes' other Actress win – Fernanda Torres – was similarly eyebrow-raising for all the right reasons and resembles the sort of more traditional performance that the Academy usually goes to bat for. Mikey Madison's Anora, thanks to the pitch-perfect balance of tragedy and emotional vulnerability, might also be enough to see her over the line.
But this is Hollywood – and they love a good story. A Demi Moore career comeback is a feel-good narrative that everyone can get behind.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
- Yura Borisov – Anora
- Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain **
- Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Unlike the lead actor categories, both supporting awards at this year's Oscars are pretty much done and dusted – despite each field containing multiple exceptional performances that, in other years, might have been well placed to capture a gong.
Kieran Culkin and his carefree Benji in A Real Pain marked him out as yet another post-Succession success story alongside peer and fellow contender Jeremy Strong. On top of that, the bookies have Culkin as one of the night's biggest odds-on favorites. Why? It's the sort of supporting performance that really stands out as one of the film's highlights without overpowering either the message of the film, nor its lead. An easy winner to call here, then, especially given his Globes victory in January.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees:
- Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande – Wicked
- Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez **
There's been some chatter about Isabella Rossellini's screentime – or lack thereof – in Conclave and whether it merits a nomination. In our humble opinion, it absolutely does. Still, that discourse is going to melt away come awards night as the criminally underappreciated Zoe Saldaña looks set to pick up the crown.
Saldaña has been one of the few constants in early conversations around the category in what has been a fairly muddled field to pin down. The Academy's slightly bizarre love-in with Emilia Pérez across several major categories should at least lead to one big win – and we think it'll be here, if nowhere else.
For more, check out the upcoming movies coming your way in 2025.
