As developers attempt to "survive 2024", analyst says the industry's "gotta get to GTA 6 and hope"

GTA 6 trailer screenshots — (Image credit: Rockstar Games)

As developers gather in Las Vegas for the first major games industry event of the year, reports suggest many are simply trying to "survive" the next 12 months - and GTA 6 might be key to that survival.

The DICE Awards are a prestigious annual ceremony that sees a substantial gathering of games industry professionals. This year, amid the backdrop of cancellations and redundancies that are sweeping the industry, the tone of the awards is said to be more somber than normal, with some reporting that developers are simply hoping to last into next year, when the market might be less volatile.

Developer and documentary-maker Danny O'Dwyer tweeted his impressions of the show after two days at the DICE conference, suggesting that core themes of his conversations are that publishers and venture capitalists are offering "minimal investment," and that there's worry about the "ever-increasing cost of AAA development" amid "little core-market expansion." As well as a dig at Embracer Group - the company responsible for many of those redundancies and closures - O'Dwyer says that the overriding sentiment of the conference is a need to "Survive 24."

Industry health check after two days at D.I.C.E. - Everyone is shit-talking Embracer- There's minimal investment coming from publishers- Many VCs have tightened belts too- Ever increasing cost of AAA development a real problem given little core-market expansion.- Survive 24February 15, 2024

That sentiment was echoed by Mat Piscatella, executive director at analyst firm Circana. He said that "'Survive 2024' has been the key theme of my convos with publishers and retailers so far this year as well." With spending remaining flat and no significant room for increased player count or playtime, as well as rising costs, he suggests that the "market's gotta get to GTA 6 and hope."

"Survive 2024" has been the key theme of my convos with publishers and retailers so far this year as well.Industry spend CAGR has been basically flat since the pandemic, no significant upside room for player/hours growth, costs keep rising. Market's gotta get to GTA6 and hope. https://t.co/v4nAhBKy57February 15, 2024

That's a somewhat bleak outlook, not least because I'm not expecting GTA 6 until well into 2025. Rockstar's next game is likely to drive substantial spend across the industry, but betting everything on one game certainly feels risky. But against the backdrop of thousands of layoffs in 2024 already, it's certainly likely to be an extremely difficult year for game developers.

There are still some big games coming this year, so check out our list of new games 2024.

I'm GamesRadar's Managing Editor for news, shaping the news strategy across the team. I started my journalistic career while getting my degree in English Literature at the University of Warwick, where I also worked as Games Editor on the student newspaper, The Boar. Since then, I've run the news sections at PCGamesN and Kotaku UK, and also regularly contributed to PC Gamer. As you might be able to tell, PC is my platform of choice, so you can regularly find me playing League of Legends or Steam's latest indie hit.