"The biggest competitor to Grand Theft Auto 6 will be Grand Theft Auto 5," says industry analyst, because AAA is struggling against the live-service behemoths it created years ago

GTA 6 is like a meteor – no publisher wants their upcoming game's release to be obliterated by its starpower, but in terms of legitimate competition, Rockstar might be its own worst enemy.

That's according to Circana games industry analyst Mat Piscatella, who recently told GamesRadar+ "there's more games, but a smaller pie" in 2025. Now, Piscatella says in a new interview with GamesIndustry.biz that he thinks "the biggest competitor to Grand Theft Auto 6 will be Grand Theft Auto 5."

"It's wild times to be trying to make new video games," he continues, using the lasting strength of zillion-dollar online games like Fortnite (released in 2017) and Minecraft (out since 2009) as examples. "And Grand Theft Auto 5 launched in 2013. It's still one of the top 20 bestselling games every single month."

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Piscatella predicts that, "over time, we're going to get to the point where we more fully transition towards that free-to-play model as a baseline over the next, say, 20 years, 30 years." GTA 6, by comparison, could cost up to $100 according to some experts, though it'll at least presumably launch with the online elements Piscatella thinks are important for submerging a modern blockbuster in money.

There's still the issue of GTA 6 being a new game, however. Piscatella remarks that "every IP holder is trying to get their IP into a Fortnite or into a Minecraft rather than building out their own games, because they know that's where the audience is." We can't ignore the fact that Grand Theft Auto has a gargantuan playerbase of its own, of course, but only time can reveal how much of it shows up for GTA 6 – and for how long.

GTA 6 has scared off publishers all year, but Rockstar has been doing this for at least 18: In 2007, Saints Row 2 devs held a meeting to panic over the GTA 4 release date.