Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced finally arrives tomorrow, and according to analysts, it might just be the win that Ubisoft needs after the Prince of Persia: Sands of Time Remake cancellation earlier this year.
There's no doubt that the Black Flag remake has garnered quite some hype from longtime Assassin's Creed fans, boasting everything from revamped visuals to entirely new areas to explore – and according to Rhys Elliott, head of market analysis at Alinea Analytics, it may just turn things around for Ubisoft with its potential success.
The analyst explains as much in a new post on his Substack, first looking back at the developer's history with remakes.
"Ubisoft has historically leaned on remasters over full remakes, but it now has a few proper overhauls in the pipeline," writes Elliott. "Alongside the troubled Prince of Persia: Sands of Time Remake and Rayman Legends Retold, first out of the gate is Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced. It's a ground-up remake of 2013's Assassin's Creed 4: Black Flag, still widely considered the peak of the franchise."
I mean, he's not exactly wrong there. I still look back at Black Flag as one of the series greats myself, alongside other personal favorites like Assassin's Creed 2. There hasn't been a "pirate" game quite like it since.
According to Elliott, though, that's not the only reason that Resynced might prove popular – it also has a lot to do with the Assassin's Creed series' rising emergence on PC (via Valve's platform Steam, of course).
"While Assassin's Creed has been a console-first property, it's been gaining some ground on Steam," as Elliott puts it. "For context, Assassin's Creed Shadows has sold 5.7 million copies globally, splitting 53.6% PS5, 23.8% Steam, and 23.6% Xbox. Resynced looks poised for a hearty PC showing, already clearing 300,000 copies sold on Steam ahead of launch, worth almost $14 million in gross revenue."
Those are some big numbers.
That's not all, though – "Resynced has already outsold the entire Steam lifetime run of Ubisoft Singapore's previous pirate venture, Skull & Bones, before it's even out. And our estimates have Black Flag Resynced tracking far above AC Shadows on Steam pre-launch, too."
That's… wild. It's no secret that Skull & Bones didn't exactly deliver, but that's all still mind-boggling. Not to mention those Assassin's Creed Shadows comparisons.
"At the same two-day-out milestone, Resynced has sold 5.39x more Steam copies than Shadows did in its equivalent pre-release window." Nostalgia helps, too. In Elliott's own words, "Black Flag Resynced is on track to be a much-needed hit for Ubisoft" – it's a "timely strategy for a struggling Ubisoft."
The analyst notes it's been "a turbulent few years of costly development, delays, and high-profile misses" for the company.
That's why it's good that Black Flag already has an established community. "Building an unproven new IP from scratch is a six-to-eight-year gamble costing hundreds of millions." Resynced, on the other hand, is no gamble at all.
Between the already-solid forecast for its sales and the nostalgia, as Elliott notes various times throughout his post, it's likely to be anything but a gamble for Ubisoft.
Here's hoping the analyst's words ring true – although something tells me they will. He'll "be back next week with the full launch data for Black Flag Resynced" after it's had a moment to properly land, so keep an eye on his Substack.
