Avatar: The Way of Water has massive opening weekend – but comes in below predictions

Avatar: The Way of Water has stormed the box office over its opening weekend, bringing in a massive total – but still falling short of predictions. 

The sequel was expected to open to around $525 million globally, with $150 – $175 million predicted domestically. Per Variety, the sequel opened to $134 million domestically with a global total of $435 million, so that's just under a $100 million shortfall worldwide. 

James Cameron's blockbuster is tied with The Batman for 2022's fifth largest domestic opening and is the second biggest global opening weekend of the year, behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness' $442 million. It's the weekend's number one film, finally bumping Black Panther: Wakanda Forever off the top spot after five consecutive weeks. 

Cameron has previously said that the film will need to become one of the highest-grossing movies ever to break even. The first Avatar film is the highest-grossing movie of all time, so don't count the sequel out just yet. 

The biggest movie of the year remains Top Gun: Maverick, which scored $1.48 billion at the global box office. It's followed by Jurassic World Dominion at just over $1 billion, then Doctor Strange 2 at $955 million. Minions: The Rise of Gru follows with $939 million, then Wakanda Forever fills out the top five with $786 million. 

The Way of Water has no blockbuster competition for the rest of the holiday season, so it's possible the sequel will gain momentum that will carry it to a bigger box office haul; the first Avatar opened to just $77 million at the domestic box office, after all. 

Avatar 2 is in theaters now. If you're up to speed on the sequel, check out our spoilery deep dive on The Way of Water ending explained. For everything 2023 has to offer, see our roundup of all the upcoming major movie release dates.