Valve is seemingly sitting on 20,000 Steam Machine units, so I'd be stumped if availability is an issue

Valve still hasn't revealed a Steam Machine release date, but it apparently just ordered 50 tons of "game console". That's a lot of game consoles, and it'd be ludicrous if the shipment didn't contain the shiny new mini PC, but there's still a chance we're looking at a simple Steam Deck OLED restock rather than "20,000" Steam Machines.

In a post highlighting the supposed Steam Machine shipping manifest, hardware analyst Brad Lynch points out over 50 tons of imports across two days. Again, the product listed is "game console", which is delightfully vague, but unless Gabe Newell has decided to treat himself to a boat-load of retro handhelds from China, we're very likely looking at the first batch of Valve's newcomer.

This isn't the first time a Valve shipping manifest has set the stage for a hardware launch. Just three weeks ago, a bunch of Steam Controllers hit US soil, and while you could have previously doubted whether it was the new gamepad, the accessory officially went on sale yesterday. Yes, it's now sold out, but I'm still optimistic that the box will follow a similar release pattern and that there will be plenty to go around.

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I should note that the 20,000 Steam Machine figure is a number being specifically pitched by The Verge. I toyed with using a similar calculation with the previous Steam Controller shipment, but ultimately decided that elements like packaging and materials are probably throwing off straight calculations based on the box's advertised 2.6kg weight.

Nevertheless, even if Valve is sitting on fewer than 20,000 Steam Machine units, it still feels like the storefront giant will be well stocked. If the company actually sold that number of mini PCs on day one in the US, it would be considered a success since we're talking about a new platform primarily targeting a specific PC playerbase.

That's not to say I think the Machine will remain niche or "specialist", especially since Microsoft is cooking up similar hardware with Xbox Project Helix. But, it's extremely early days for the world of PC-console hybrids as a platform, and if the Steam Machine's price ends up being way above the already pricey PS5 Pro, it's not going to end up under as many TVs as conventional consoles.

I'm not fully convinced we'll have a Steam Machine release date in three weeks' time following the new shipping manifest. Even if the delivery isn't just Valve topping up its Steam Deck supplies or even gearing up to release its new Frame VR headset instead, Valve likely won't drop the new box as casually as the controller. Ideally, Valve will decide to sell the Steam Machine at a loss, and the box will be available worldwide before the summer, but I don't want to jinx anything and turn the whole launch into vapourware.

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