Elden Ring Nightreign stats reveal FromSoftware survivorship bias, suggesting its "most deadly" world bosses had their numbers padded by bruised loot goblins

Elden Ring Nightreign publisher Bandai Namco released a bundle of stats from FromSoftware's multiplayer Souls-'em-up ahead of its impending Forsaken Hollows DLC, and there's been immediate and heated discussion about the findings for the "most deadly" field bosses in particular. For starters, the deadliest boss of them all ain't even on the podium.

It's worth noting that the criteria for this ranking isn't totally clear; all we know is that these bosses are evidently the most deadly, which to me suggests we're going by how many players have been killed by them. Bandai just says, "Which field boss was the most deadly gamble?"

Looking at similar infographics from other games, players killed is likely the easiest data for FromSoftware to trace, and it is, for example, how we often rank animals deadliest to humans. And this methodology only makes more sense as you go down the list of bosses – a list which doesn't make much sense at all for a true measurement of danger.

Here's how Elden Ring Nightreign field boss deadliness stacks up according to Bandai's data.

• 1 - Royal Carian Knight
• 2 - Draconic Tree Sentinel
• 3 - Erdtree Avatar
• 4 - Bell Bearing Hunter
• 5 - Pot-Troll
• 6 - Black Blade Kindred
• 7 - Death Rite Bird
• 8 - Ulcerated Tree Spirit

Several questions come to mind. One feels very obvious. How is the Bell Bearing Hunter, the most challenging field boss by two country miles, ranked so low? My best guess is a weird form of survivorship bias. Forget the bosses that killed the most people; what about the bosses that scared people off on sight?

If we do assume this ranking is based on how many players met their ends at the hands of these bosses, we can then reasonably assume that the Bell Bearing Hunter is so famously threatening – and in an on-the-clock game like Nightreign, so incredibly not worth the time – that people aren't dying to it because they aren't fighting it at all. You only have to die to this thing a few times to realize your time is better spent elsewhere. The fact that this brick house is runner-up despite his reputation is impressive, if anything.

I also have a theory for the Royal Carian Knight, a somewhat surprising winner for this contest. It's a reasonably hard enemy, but I'd say nothing too special. However, it's pretty common knowledge at this point that if you want legendary gear in Nightreign, you go to Noklateo, a city tied to one of the game's Shifting Earth map variants. It's chock-full of potential legendary spawns, guarantees a legendary drop and a second-life buff at the end, and even comes with an altar where you can duplicate your hard-earned golden weapons. Guess what else is in Noklateo, or rather, right outside it: the Royal Carian Knight.

This magic knight can be found in other locations as well, and the deadliness of all of these bosses is affected by where and how frequently they appear, but it doesn't feel like a coincidence that one of the most popular (and, crucially, selectable) Shifting Earths just so happens to come with the deadliest boss as a package deal. I can't prove it, but I'd wager legendary loot goblins are feeding the knight's K/D record.

The Draconic Tree Sentinel feels like a pretty sensible second-place winner. It can one-hit many Nightfarers and its ranged attacks can snipe you at a frankly alarming distance. I've seen some of the git gud folks express shock and scorn at the apparent lethality of the Erdtree Avatar, but let's consider just how common this boss is and consequently how many kills it's likely to rack up. Much the same goes for the Pot-Trolls, which have infuriatingly long attack range and can spawn in number-padding groups of four thanks to a low-roll variant of the map's central castle.

I like to think of these bosses like venomous snakes loose in Australia. Even the deadliest snakes generally won't kill you if you don't give them a reason to, but if I had to, I'd rather step on a copperhead than a taipan.

12 Elden Ring Nightreign tips and tricks to help you conquer the Night.