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It would've taken a miracle to save Highguard, as the FPS struggled to find an audience after an initial spike at launch, but none came, leading to the game's now imminent shutdown. The implosion is sending shockwaves through the industry, with a prominent indie developer explaining that this is all just high-end craps for investors.
"Every game like Highguard / Concord etc is essentially gambling by investors," Tyler Glaiel, a developer on The End is Nigh, The Basement Collection, Mewgenics and more, says on Twitter, adding that the "5%" chance of a "game taking off and making one billion dollars means its positive expected value to bet up to 50 million dollars on it." He adds: "That's how that shit works."
The people behind these decisions are wealthy, to the point it simply doesn't phase them when something doesn't pan out, he suggests. "They know ahead of time a flop is likely," he explains. "It doesn't matter for those who have billions to bet cause they can do that enough times to get something that actually does work out and covers the losses on the rest."
Every game like highguard / concord / etc is essentially gambling by investors because a 5% of the game taking off and making 1 billion dollars means its positive expected value to bet up to 50 million dollars on it. That's how that shit works. They know ahead of time a flop is… https://t.co/KxJuFSKoE5March 3, 2026
He makes it clear that "it just sucks for the developers who get caught in the churn."
In Highguard's case, reports circulated that Tencent was a financial backer, adding validity to this claim. There were seemingly people with some deep pockets involved somewhere in the project's life, and I'd bet when growing a steady player base of any size seemed difficult, they took their chips and decided to move to another table.
What gets left behind is not just the potential of the game, but the devs who're now out of a job. Many have been analyzing what happened to try and figure out where it all went wrong for Wildlight Entertainment. Closing out The Game Awards, releasing in a crowded field for both shooters and live-service games; there are aspects worth questioning.
But Glaiel contends it's all pontificating on what's mere luck, more or less, saying it's "basically like trying to suggest how you should change which lottery numbers you pick next time." Whatever the case, after this and Concord, the industry could do with making some sort of change, for the job security of other developers.
