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Wait, did I actually say that?
The 2014 hangover has finally cleared. The vomit has been hosed off the pavements, the HR allegations have been dropped, and 2015 is slowly starting to take shape. Through my groggy, first-week-back-at-work-memory, I vaguely remember making some bold, rather forward predictions about Sony's gaming year last January. What did I say? What did I do? Oh god, where did I bury Bubsy?
Well, thanks to the internet's capacity to store things digitally, I've been able to dig out the article I wrote, and assess the quality of my crystal balls. Here is the piece I wrote back in January 2014, with a few choice comments added to give the thumbs up or down on my predictions. I actually surprised myself with a few of these.
1. There will be no PS4 price cut
I said: Yeah, sorry folks. If youre waiting for PS4 to get cheaper, then 2014 is going to be a disappointing year for you. History tells us that, unless a console sells like Anthrax-chunk cookies, then theres no chance of a price drop in the first year. And as PS4 is still sold out in most countries, I suspect that Sony is going to keep that magic 350 / $400 price-tag firmly fastened to the machine.
Right or Wrong? Pretty spot-on, actually. Ok, so we saw some unofficial price-cuts during Black Friday, and there were some tempting pre-Crimbo offers, but Sony has retained that magic 350 / $400 price. Score!
2. There will be a PS Vita price drop
I said: PS Vita is currently 170 / $200, but that wont last the year. At the very least, well see a price drop, bringing the handheld down to - as a rough estimate - an almost-impulse-buy 100 / $120. Given the machines new life as something of a portable indie game player, and companion to PS4, I reckon Sony will want to make it as affordable as possible.
Right or Wrong? Again, this prediction was fairly accurate. While I over-estimated the scale of the price-drop, Sony did lower the cost of a Vita in the UK and US. And released precisely 'fuck-all' games for the handheld, essentially making it deader than a dodo in a spangly disco-shirt.
3. Uncharted 4 will not release in 2014
I said: Given the tiny amount of information revealed by Uncharted 4s teaser trailer, Im going to say that the PS4 game wont be ready until at least 2015. Although theres little doubt Naughty Dog has been working on the game for a couple of years, having split development resources between U4 and The Last of Us, we would have seen something solid on the game by now if it was destined for 2014. However, itll definitely be at Sonys E3 press conference in June. My prediction? Itll be mostly set in Madagascar, and itll be all about pirate treasure.
Right or Wrong? Just call me Nostradamus. Or maybe Captain Obvious. Look, no-one really expected Uncharted 4 to launch in 2014, but you have to give me some points for all the stuff about Madagascar and treasure, right?
4. Sony will launch a new tier of PS Plus that incorporates PS Now
I said: Rumours suggest that PlayStation Now - Sonys game streaming service - will launch in Autumn 2014 for the US and Canada, while Europe will wait until early 2015. Seems very plausible to me. However, Im also going to say that the launch of PS Now will bring with it a new tier of PS Plus service. Im calling it PlayStation Platinum, because thats just how I roll. This would work as a combination of the current PS Plus, and a monthly subscription service - a lot like Netflix. So, youll probably have the option to pay 100 / $120 per year, for PS Plus and unlimited access to PS Now.
Right or Wrong? I'm claiming half a point for this one. Why? PS Now is currently in Beta, and it did come to the US first, before hitting Europe. Given that it hasn't actually launched fully, I reckon this prediction still might come to fruition. Just with different dates.
5. God of War will be at E3... but it won't be Sony Santa Monica's only game
I said: Given the fact that we already know about Killzone, infamous, Uncharted and DriveClub - all Sonys big hitters - it seems reasonable to assume that another, unannounced PlayStation core franchise will either kick off or close Sonys press conference at E3. The smart money is on God of War, although the only nagging doubt in my mind here, is that its tough to see where the series will go. Hasn't Kratos killed everyone by now? However, it seems likely that GoW developer Sony Santa Monica will bring other games to E3 2014 too. It has been working with a number of smaller studios to help bring fresh, exciting indie games to PS4, and have carved out a reputation for more curious projects as well as AAA titles like God of War. So, I reckon well see a new indie game from Santa Monica.
Right or Wrong? Ok, so the headline game in this prediction simply didn't appear. Wrong, and I did admit to some doubts. Also, there was nothing Santa Monica developed at E3, although the team is collaborating with several indie crews on a bunch of games due in 2015...
6. And Media Molecule will be back too
I said: The other obvious omission from the PlayStation 4s line-up, at the moment, is LittleBigPlanet: or, more specifically, something incredibly charming and brilliant from the talented boys and girls at Media Molecule. Does PS4 need a new LittleBigPlanet game? Not specifically, but it does need a social creation game from Media Molecule to take advantage of PS4s excellent sharing and streaming features.
Right or Wrong? Correct, although with a couple of caveats. We did get LittleBigPlanet 3, but it was developed by Sumo. Also, while Media Molecule did announce something, it was Tearaway Unfolded. Not exactly a new game, but it is coming to PS4 and it's quite different to the PS Vita version.
7. MP3 and video playback will return, HDCP will leave
I said: At the moment, you cant play mp3, m4a or other media files on PS4. Why? Not sure. Ditto HDCP. For those who dont know what HDCP is, heres a link to the Wikipedia page. The short version is that it prevents external devices from copying signals that output from the machine - so you cant capture footage from PS4 without specialist kit. HDCP may get axed in 2014, allowing users to capture footage externally.
Right or Wrong? Well, half-right. I'm claiming another half-point here. HDCP is gone, but you still can't play movie or media files on PS4. Legal or otherwise, ahem...
8. Sharing will move to YouTube
I said: The logical next step for PS4 sharing is uploading directly to YouTube. Facebook just isnt a sustainable home for video, and Sony needs to expand the options for share to make the service a fundamental part of modern gaming. At the moment, its fun - but it is just a novelty. Will Sony also allow us to edit commentary tracks on shared videos? There's a good chance that'll happen too.
Right or Wrong? So much winning here. Yes, you can now upload video clips to YouTube, and yes, thanks to Share Factory you can also add commentary tracks and do all kinds of fancy editing things to your videos too.
9. Sony will finally cancel The Last Guardian
I said Lets face it: The Last Guardian is dead. Sony Japan spent too long messing about with that weird cat-eagle beast, and now the project is doomed to be a casualty of changing generations. Look, I dont doubt that Sony could finish the game, at great expense, but I do doubt that itd appear until late 2014 at the earliest. And by that time, will Sony recover its development costs as PS3s user-base dwindles? With a game thats a little niche anyway? Probably not.
Right or Wrong? Tough one. It seems pretty dead to me, but Sony insists it hasn't been cancelled. I'll be a gent about this and say that I'm 'wrong', but I still think we've seen the last of the, uh, Last Guardian.
10. Home 2.0 will launch on PS4
I said: Yes, this last slide is a joke I hope. Still, wont stop me saying I told you so", if Sony loses the run of itself and actually decides to build a next-gen version of its painfully-beige social sim. Despite the fact that its utterly awful, Home still has a core following on PS3, and it has proved lucrative in terms of advertising and micro-transactions. Oh god This might actually happen.
Right or Wrong Wrong, obviously. I was trolling, though, so whatever yeah?
How did I do?
So, adding up the points it looks like I scored... 6/10. Hey, that's not too bad. I still think The Last Guardian has been binned, and I still think we'll see a new PS Plus premium service. That shit about Kratos and Home 2.0, though? Yeah, let's just forget about that for now. And indeed, forever.
And while you're here, wasting time while you should be working, why not check out some of our other super-awesome features? Here are the 100 Best Games Ever, and here are the The Best PS4 Games To Play Right Now.
