PS3, Xbox 360 to hammer Wii in console war, says analyst

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PS3 tipped to lead but not domintate like PS2 did

An analysis report on the current console war leading up to 2010 cites PS3 and Xbox 360 will dominate over Wii in all major territories.

The report by Screen Digest's Ed Barton forecasts that the leading console will differ for each territory, predicting the PS3 to overtake Xbox 360 in Japan and Europe, but come in a close second to Microsoft's offering in America.

The analysis puts Wii in a significantly distant third in all three territories.

In an interview with Gamasutra, Ed Barton explained: "The one thing I would admit is that Nintendo's strategy with the Wii is, at the moment, the great unknown," later saying: "The numbers that we're seeing now for the Nintendo Wii, they've come out of the blocks fantastically strongly - no one would deny that.

"However it's incredibly early in the hardware cycle. There's still another five or six years to play out on this one, and the first big battleground will be Christmas of 2007."

Barton cites exclusive third-party support as a crucial issue for Wii in the next gen war: "We've already seen things like Dragon Quest going exclusive on the DS, but if we see those kind of tipping points on the Wii, we'll have to amend our view, clearly. But at the moment, this is the view we're taking."

Barton points out Wii's cheaper development costs to be a huge advantage but, considering the console's limited technical ability, Barton speculates, "As to whether more cheaply developed games can continue to drive Wii sales momentum, when you put it against the kind of game pipelines we're seeing for the Xbox 360 and PS3, I would argue that the jury's still out."

February 27, 2007