Why the next generation Xbox and PlayStation ARE coming soon: A rumour free guide, using just the facts

Forget all the rumours. The truth has been right under your nose for a year

Words: David Houghton on January 31, 2012

The first-party games are drying up

Think about it. Where are all the first-party games at? For the last couple of E3s Microsoft has been pumping out barely anything but kid-driven arm-waving simulators, while pretending that it can claim development credit for good third-party games by encouraging the devs to shoe-horn a bit of desperate Kinect functionality into them.

Above: A first-party game. They're drying up

Sony is going quiet too. E3 2011 was conspicuously about Vita and Move, with remarkably few – if any – first-party PS3 megatons. And after Twisted Metal, The Last Guardian and The Last of Us, what is there (barring of course, the inevitable Last of the Summer Wine adaptation to complete Sony’s title-themed trilogy)? Yes, Microsoft is shifting into more of a multimedia entertainment area, but within both platform holders’ release schedules there's a very definite whiff their internal developers’ attentions are somewhere else. That somewhere is made of millions of extra polygons, has some lovely textures on the trees, gorgeously high-dynamic sunsets, and can be found just beyond the great big mountain of target footage that you’ll no doubt catch sight of soon.

And meanwhile...

The current machines are pushing for the kid market

Always a clincher, this one. In December 2011, Jim Ryan openly stated that the PS3 would be pushed into a more kid-friendly space, marketing wise. This always happens during the last couple of years of a console’s life. Hardware gets cheaper, as does the back-catalogue of games, and the whole platform becomes more affordable to kids and more feasible as a gift idea. Having the hardcore market locked down, platform holders move on to mopping up the kid money as they run into gearing up for the next generation.

I would explain that Microsoft is showing hints at going a bit more kid friendly too, but I don’t think I really need to. And besides, I’m not entirely sure it is entirely kid friendly to build your whole marketing plan around making the world hate all children.

Above: HATE THEM

So there you have it. Personally, I’m not in any immediate rush for the PS4 or next Xbox / Xbox 720 / Xbox Next / insert-another-crappy-made-up-name-here-box. And I highly doubt that either Microsoft or Sony really wants to start the next generation of console gaming any time soon either. But business is business and pressure is pressure.

E3 then? Well while I'm not totally convinced that recent supposed statements by certain French execs - garbled in translation and interpreted subjectively by the Chinese whispers of the internet - really do mean that we won't see anything new at E3 2012 (barring the Wii U of course), such reveals do not have to happen at the show. I do think that the presence of the PS4 and next Xbox will be felt at some point this year, and that the intention of those reveals will be to allow their respective companies to hit the ground running next January, to start the lead up to a 2013 release.

Be it by logo, target footage, or a mere reference to a successor being in development, I wouldn’t be surprised if either company felt the need to cement the existence of its next generation console in the minds of the world’s hardcore gamers. Because that’s all that’s needed right now. The seed of hype. The concrete knowledge of a machine for the community to rally around. Because as the last 12 months of internet has shown us, the mere idea of a console is enough.

Platforms:

Xbox 360, PS2, Wii U

Topics:

Microsoft , next-gen, Nintendo, Nintendo Wii U, playstation 3, PS3, Sony , Wii U, Xbox 360, Xbox next

29 comments

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shnazzyone - February 1, 2012 11:32 p.m.

I loved this article. One of the more interesting articles i've read deconstructing the current console state of affairs. E3 should be interesting this year.
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Rhymenocerous - February 1, 2012 10 a.m.

What about CryEngine 3? But yeah, after reading this, 2013 doesn't seem like a rediculous prediction for console releases at all. Not that I'm in such a rush though, I'm happy with things as they are.
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psptwo-roundup - February 1, 2012 3:39 a.m.

Considering the current latest PC graphics cards are going for $400+ each, lets guess (wildly) at: $150 for the four-billion transistor GPU, $100 for a quad-core processor and $80 for 8GB DRAM - based on $1.25 for 2Gbit memory (spot market prices - that's proper research that is!). $200 R&D, build, marketing and guff $530 - convert that to £s = £530 (not £333 thanks to evil money-grabbing types who ignore the .63 $/£ exchange rate.) And we're almost at the point where a next gen console becomes affordable. Can't be too far off, but while the middleware and graphics engines are now more than capable, most developers will need a good deal of ramp up time to produce the games that these consoles demand. The most important part of the equation - the Grand Theft Auto/Unreal/MGS/id-engine teams need to have finished their final this-gen products, had a holiday and settled down to master the next-gen code engines before its worth announcing anything.
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aratiatia - February 1, 2012 12:16 a.m.

The New Zealand scenery was a pleasant surprise in this article! Very cool.
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D0CCON - January 31, 2012 6:57 p.m.

I liked this article, and then I remembered that the title said rumor free and wondered how this article deserves that title.
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Stiltzkin - January 31, 2012 5:48 p.m.

Huh. Odd choice of photo with the highway (this way to next gen). Was wondering what the heck New Zealand had to do with this. Apparently we just have easy to photoshop highways?
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tiben36 - January 31, 2012 3:29 p.m.

there wont be a next gen console before 2014 (wii u is current gen btw, just veeeery late)
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CH3BURASHKA - January 31, 2012 12:34 p.m.

Dammit, just missed the Dinosaur Penis offramp... guess we're turning around, kids!
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RedHarlow - January 31, 2012 10:18 a.m.

"Rumor free" -> The entire article is speculation and hearsay.
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ClusterShart - January 31, 2012 10:04 a.m.

Well, you can't really consider it the next gen, just hardware upgrades. From what has been released, the Xboxwhatever doesn't even look like it will be able to play modern PC games, let alone at 1080p without cutting more than a few corners. I don't even know if Sony will have enough money to produce another console.
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sam-street - January 31, 2012 9:52 a.m.

David, I normally enjoy your articles but christ! Next gen consoles coming, 100% rumour free based on just the facts? This entire article was complete speculation! Reading between the lines will give you the real answer? So the fact that Kaz Hirai himself has said on record that Sony will categorically not be showing PS4 this E3 or that's it's coming anytime soon is trumped by reading between the lines? I'll stick to the facts in this case.
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ZhugeLiang - January 31, 2012 9:12 a.m.

"...lolloping along the track behind its big two rivals again like a tired dog with ever-shortening legs." Damn, Dave. That's some Byronian shit. As far as the photograph/screenshot comparison of the lighting engine goes, it looks impressive, but I'd be more interested in a comparison at a much, much higher resolution.
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CaptCOMMANDO - January 31, 2012 9 a.m.

I bet 5$ through PayPal to everyone* that SkraightSkreet will post in this articles comments and start some crap. *I will not really send money to anyone.
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db1331 - January 31, 2012 8:49 a.m.

The graphics in that Unreal Engine 3 demo are still a long, LONG ways off, especially for consoles. That thing was run on a super computer that far exceeds anything even the most ridiculous of power users would build to play current games today. Add to that the fact that current PCs are 6-7 years ahead of the consoles, and you get the idea. If the next Xbox is really only going to have an HD 6670 like rumored, I don't think you would see anything near that tech until the console generation AFTER this next one, if even then.
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chrisbarker1980 - January 31, 2012 9:08 a.m.

You wrong there. Epic stated that the Samaritan demo was made with current PC components that anyone can buy now, and that was a year ago nearly. Mr Hooters is spot with this analysis I rekon. 2013 would be ideal for a new high spec console. I'm a old fashioned graphics whore so bring it on I say. The more power the better.
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ooohyeh2000 - January 31, 2012 10:07 a.m.

IT was running 3 Nvidia 580's in triple SLI i believe, definitely out of average pc gamers scope, but not a supercomputer. You also missed out the fact that, despite consoles being so far behind compared to pcs at the moment, games still look quite similar across platforms due to the massive levels of optimisation consols get. I think that a, albeit slightly toned down, verson of that technology will happen on the next generation of consoles.
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db1331 - January 31, 2012 11:18 a.m.

Except they don't look quite similar. Skyrim, BF3, and The Witcher 2 (from what CDP has shown of the 360 release) look nothing alike. A console gamer can look at a small screenshot of the PC versions and say, "It's not that different", but for anyone who has played the PC versions, the shortcomings of the console versions jump out at you. That doesn't mean the games still aren't good on a console, but let's call a spade a spade. Obviously, console gamers either can't spot or don't care about these differences, which is why they are console gamers in the first place. There's nothing wrong with that. Also, triple SLI IS a supercomputer. You go onto most forums and post that you are running three video cards, and most people are going to ask "Why?" I have one video card, not even top-end, and I can run every PC game out there on Ultra, no sweat. It would be almost pointless to get a second card, let alone a third. So yes, while you COULD have built that computer out of currently available parts, it would have been extremely impractical, to say the least. And the Xbox's 6670 couldn't match the power of just 1 of those 3 cards needed to run that demo. So again, you will not see anything anywhere near that technology on the so called "next-gen" console.
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ultimatepunchrod - January 31, 2012 8:48 a.m.

First party games ARE NOT drying up on PS3. They just all came out in 2011. There's nothing left for 2012 except Sly 4, (maybe) the Last of US, and Twisted Metal. But look at what came out in 2011: Uncharted 3, Littlebigplanet 2, Infamous 2, Resistance 3, Ratchet and Clank all 4 one, Motorstorm Apocalypse, Ico and Shadow of the Colossus collection, God of War origins collection, Killzone 3, Socom 4, and there are even more, but the rest just aren't that good. I liked the article, but that entry made no sense.
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Barnsley Pal - January 31, 2012 10:31 a.m.

I think you are missing his point. He means that the amount of future PS3 exclusives are drying up. It doesn't matter how many exclusives they have released in the past. He is not suggesting that Sony are not making future exclusives, but that the majority of those in development are still unannounced and for the next generation hardware.
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AwesomeMan - January 31, 2012 7:34 a.m.

As an Xbox gamer, I could use a bit of an upgrade in terms of power under the hood. I'm interested to see if they'll put a Blu-ray disc drive in the new Xbox, DVD's won't last forever. Also, whatever next Battlefield game comes out better have more than BS 24 player support on consoles! 64 preferably...32 the BARE MINIMUM!
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